Publication Code: Y87A

CONTENTS

1.    INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

2.    RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND ISSUES

2.1    THE DYNAMISM OF MANUFACTURED EXPORTS
2.2    THE DECLINE OF TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURE
2.3    INCOME DISPARITIES

2.3.1    INCOME DISPARITIES BY SECTOR
2.3.2    THE DISPARITY OF INCOMES BY REGION
2.3.3    FUTURE PATTERN

3.    THE SITUATION IN 1987

3.1    INDICATORS OF GROWTH

3.1.1    OIL CONSUMPTION
3.1.2    ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
3.1.3    IMPORTS
3.1.4    STOCK MARKET
3.1.5    PUBLIC SECTOR

3.2    IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT ON VARIOUS CROPS

3.2.1    RICE
3.2.2    MAIZE
3.2.3    CASSAVA
3.2.4    SUGARCANE
3.2.5    RUBBER
3.2.6    OTHER CROPS

3.3    FORECAST FOR 1987

4.    MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

4.1    EXTERNAL SITUATIONS

4.1.1    WORLD ECONOMY
4.1.2    WORLD OIL PRICE DEVELOPMENT

4.2    BASE SCENARIO

4.3    SEVERE WORLD RECESSION SCENARIO

4.4    WORLD RECESSION AND HIGH INFLATION SCENARIO

5.    LESSONS AND SOME ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE

TABLES