Table 2 Scenarios for the Futurea Projections of HIV Infection, AIDS Cases and AIDS Deaths

PEAK YEAR: 1993
HIVAIDSDEATH
YearIncidenceCumulative IncidencePrevalenceIncidenceCumulative IncidencePrevalenceIncidenceCumulative Incidence
198794594594500000
19885,9866,9316,92655222
198930,01036,94136,8835458272932
199063,474100,415100,000356415178205236
199194,292194,707192,8091,4831,8987429201,156
1992115,415310,122303,9404,2846,1822,1422,8844,040
1993124,987435,109419,8989,02915,2114,5146,65610,697
1994124,384559,493528,72015,56230,7737,78112,29522,992
1995116,358675,851621,72023,35854,13111,67919,46042,452
1996103,828779,679693,80331,74585,87615,87327,55270,004
199789,258868,937742,99040,071125,94720,03535,908105,911
199874,453943,390769,70747,736173,68323,86843,903149,815
199960,5771,003,967776,41353,871227,55426,93650,804200,619
200048,2671,052,234766,63358,046285,60129,02355,959256,577
PEAK YEAR: 1995
HIVAIDSDEATH
YearIncidenceCumulative IncidencePrevalenceIncidenceCumulative IncidencePrevalenceIncidenceCumulative Incidence
198775375375300000
19885,0365,7895,78544222
198928,15633,94533,8974448222426
199066,414100,35999,999312360156178204
1991110,024210,383208,6401,3831,7436928481,051
1992150,186360,569354,5714,2555,9982,1272,8193,870
1993181,379541,948526,3699,58115,5794,7906,91810,788
1994201,297743,245710,04217,62433,2038,81213,60224,391
1995210,003953,248891,86728,17961,38114,08922,90147,292
1996208,9751,162,2231,060,13940,703102,08420,35234,44181,733
1997200,3451,362,5681,206,01154,473156,55727,23647,588129,321
1998186,3671,548,9351,323,71168,667225,22434,33361,570190,891
1999169,1011,718,0361,410,72482,088307,31241,04475,377266,268
2000150,2601,868,2961,467,20493,780401,09246,89087,934354,202

aProjections based on the Chin/Lwanga Model.
Projection assumptions:

Notes:Incidence is the number of new cases per year.
Prevalence is the total number of current cases.