| Table 2 | Scenarios for the Futurea Projections of HIV Infection, AIDS Cases and AIDS Deaths |
| PEAK YEAR: 1993 | ||||||||
| HIV | AIDS | DEATH | ||||||
| Year | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence | Prevalence | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence | Prevalence | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence |
| 1987 | 945 | 945 | 945 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1988 | 5,986 | 6,931 | 6,926 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 1989 | 30,010 | 36,941 | 36,883 | 54 | 58 | 27 | 29 | 32 |
| 1990 | 63,474 | 100,415 | 100,000 | 356 | 415 | 178 | 205 | 236 |
| 1991 | 94,292 | 194,707 | 192,809 | 1,483 | 1,898 | 742 | 920 | 1,156 |
| 1992 | 115,415 | 310,122 | 303,940 | 4,284 | 6,182 | 2,142 | 2,884 | 4,040 |
| 1993 | 124,987 | 435,109 | 419,898 | 9,029 | 15,211 | 4,514 | 6,656 | 10,697 |
| 1994 | 124,384 | 559,493 | 528,720 | 15,562 | 30,773 | 7,781 | 12,295 | 22,992 |
| 1995 | 116,358 | 675,851 | 621,720 | 23,358 | 54,131 | 11,679 | 19,460 | 42,452 |
| 1996 | 103,828 | 779,679 | 693,803 | 31,745 | 85,876 | 15,873 | 27,552 | 70,004 |
| 1997 | 89,258 | 868,937 | 742,990 | 40,071 | 125,947 | 20,035 | 35,908 | 105,911 |
| 1998 | 74,453 | 943,390 | 769,707 | 47,736 | 173,683 | 23,868 | 43,903 | 149,815 |
| 1999 | 60,577 | 1,003,967 | 776,413 | 53,871 | 227,554 | 26,936 | 50,804 | 200,619 |
| 2000 | 48,267 | 1,052,234 | 766,633 | 58,046 | 285,601 | 29,023 | 55,959 | 256,577 |
| PEAK YEAR: 1995 | ||||||||
| HIV | AIDS | DEATH | ||||||
| Year | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence | Prevalence | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence | Prevalence | Incidence | Cumulative Incidence |
| 1987 | 753 | 753 | 753 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1988 | 5,036 | 5,789 | 5,785 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 1989 | 28,156 | 33,945 | 33,897 | 44 | 48 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| 1990 | 66,414 | 100,359 | 99,999 | 312 | 360 | 156 | 178 | 204 |
| 1991 | 110,024 | 210,383 | 208,640 | 1,383 | 1,743 | 692 | 848 | 1,051 |
| 1992 | 150,186 | 360,569 | 354,571 | 4,255 | 5,998 | 2,127 | 2,819 | 3,870 |
| 1993 | 181,379 | 541,948 | 526,369 | 9,581 | 15,579 | 4,790 | 6,918 | 10,788 |
| 1994 | 201,297 | 743,245 | 710,042 | 17,624 | 33,203 | 8,812 | 13,602 | 24,391 |
| 1995 | 210,003 | 953,248 | 891,867 | 28,179 | 61,381 | 14,089 | 22,901 | 47,292 |
| 1996 | 208,975 | 1,162,223 | 1,060,139 | 40,703 | 102,084 | 20,352 | 34,441 | 81,733 |
| 1997 | 200,345 | 1,362,568 | 1,206,011 | 54,473 | 156,557 | 27,236 | 47,588 | 129,321 |
| 1998 | 186,367 | 1,548,935 | 1,323,711 | 68,667 | 225,224 | 34,333 | 61,570 | 190,891 |
| 1999 | 169,101 | 1,718,036 | 1,410,724 | 82,088 | 307,312 | 41,044 | 75,377 | 266,268 |
| 2000 | 150,260 | 1,868,296 | 1,467,204 | 93,780 | 401,092 | 46,890 | 87,934 | 354,202 |
| a | Projections based on the Chin/Lwanga Model. Projection assumptions: |
| Starting year of rapid spread | = | 1987 |
| Reference Year | = | 1990 |
| Number HlV-positive in 1990 | = | 100,000 |
| Notes: | Incidence is the number of new cases per year. Prevalence is the total number of current cases. |