Rice remains Thailand’s principal crop, accounting for 29 percent of total crop
value added in 1994. Thailand is also the world’s top exporter of rice, which may be
attributed to its long-term comparative production advantage and the gradual decline of
domestic per capita consumption of rice from 172 kg per head in 1968, to 119 kg per head
in 1990 (Nipon 1996).
In the early 1980s, falling rice prices and the exhaustion of land resources put
increasing strain on the maintenance of the past growth rates of production. However, the
problems could be largely overcome by yield improvements (from 528 kg/rai in 1980 to 721
kg/rai in 1996). In contrast, the labor and water shortages of the 1990s have not been
tackled yet and, thus, pose serious threats to the future productivity and competitiveness
of Thai rice production.
In the early 20th century, Thai rice production suffered from chronic labor shortages.
However, the problem was usually overcome by simply shifting from
“transplanting” to the less labor-intensive, but also less productive
“broadcasting” method of cultivation. Given the depletion of land resources in
the 1980s, yield improvements have become more important, such that most of the current
rice production is conducted by the “transplanting method.” Shifting back to
“broadcasting” in response to the labor shortage is not a feasible option
anymore, as the loss in productivity would be difficult to compensate for. Instead,
increased mechanization of Thailand’s rice production is required. However, while the
process of land preparation and harvesting in “broadcasting” has already been
mechanized, the general level of mechanization in “transplanting” is low. As a
result, the recent labor shortage has had severe impacts on total rice production. In the
period from 1989 to 1990, the total area cultivated with rice fell from 64.677 million rai
to 60.677 million rai. Similarly, although there has been a long-term increase in total
rice production, there has been a recent decrease from 21.3 million tons in 1989 to 21.1
million tons in 1995 (Office of Agricultural Economics).
The current water shortage has also already affected rice production as the planted
area for dry-season rice has shown a declining trend in the 1990s. The water scarcity has
encouraged a great number of farmers to switch to cultivating higher valued, less
water-intensive crops. The government has also promoted this process through its
“restructuring” policies by adopting a measure to stop providing water for the
dry-season crop (TDRI 1995).
In a nutshell, the long-term sustainability of Thailand’s competitive rice
production crucially depends on a more efficient utilization of water resources and
increased mechanization of transplanting methods. If not addressed adequately, persistent
shortages of water and labor will certainly further reduce total rice output, which will
eventually result in declining exports and Thailand’s loss of its position as the
world’s top exporter of rice.