Notes of "AIDS in Thailand: Some Preliminary Findings"

1 TDRI's research on the prospective economic costs of AIDS is supported by USAID and the British Council. We are grateful for their support.

2 Myers, Charles N., and Albert E. Henn. 1988. "Potential Impact of AIDS in Africa," in Africa in the 1990s, edited by Robert I. Rotberg. Reference Publications, Inc.

3 Ibid.

4 Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health.

5 In some literature, six waves of the epidemic are distinguished, the first among male homosexuals, the second among IVDUs, and so on. While there were early AIDS cases and continue to be AIDS cases and new cases of HIV infection among homosexuals in Thailand, the numbers are small and appear controlled by behavior change. The first major wave of the epidemic in Thailand has been among IVDUs.

6 It would be better to calculate weighted averages. However, there are no reliable estimates by province or even nationally of total numbers in the various risk groups sampled.

7 Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), June 1990 Sentinel Surveillance Survey and preliminary data from the December 1990 Sentinel Surveillance Survey—results for individual provinces.

8 Chin and Lwanga recommend that the model not be used to project HIV infection. This is because the model is based on a logistic function which, in the absence of any understanding of underlying behavior, may or may not fit the path of an AIDS epidemic in a particular country. See Chin, J. and S.K. Lwanga, "Estimation and Projection of Adult AIDS Cases: A Simple, Non-Mathematical, Epidemiological-Based Model." Global Program on AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, 1990. Subsequent TDRI projections of the epidemic will be based on a behavioral model. The preliminary results presented in this article are based on the Chin/Lwanga model at its most conservative slope and assumptions about conversion from HIV to AIDS and from AIDS to death.

9 Ministry of Public Health (MOPH). 1990. "HIV/AIDS Situation and Surveillance in Thailand." September 15, p. 18. Bangkok: Division of Epidemiology, MOPH. mimeographed.

10 Mechai Viravaidya and Stasia Obremsky of the Population and Community Development Association make a strong case for an estimate of 300,000 HIV-positive in 1990. Personal communications, and see also Mechai Viravaidya, "Some Preliminary Findings Indicating a Need for Radical Action in AIDS Prevention in Thailand." Paper presented at the Chulabhorn Research Institute International Conference on AIDS, 17-21 December 1990, Bangkok, Thailand.